Publications

Publications

The Iran-US-Israel Conflict: War Dynamics and Consequences for Armenia

The military actions that began on the morning of February 28, 2026, have become the most large-scale direct confrontation between Iran and its adversaries—the United States and Israel. Initial US/Israeli air and missile strikes against targets inside Iran triggered a retaliatory response from Tehran. Despite the significant scale of the strikes, the conflict currently remains […]

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Publications

RCDS Analytical Brief: Strategic Implications of the Iran Crisis for Armenia

The ongoing war around Iran represents a systemic challenge to the regional balance and carries significant implications for Armenia’s security, economy, and logistical connectivity. Iran plays an important role in Armenia’s external economic relations: key trade routes linking Armenia with the markets of the Persian Gulf and Asia pass through Iranian territory. Iran is also […]

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Publications

The Emigration of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians Undermines Armenia’s Demographic Stability

25.02.2026   As of February 1, 2025, the number of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians who have left Armenia and not yet returned stands at 15,000 people. The total number of forcibly displaced Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians is 150,000. This figure represents residents who left Nagorno‑Karabakh as a result of the 2020 war and the ethnic cleansing carried out by […]

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Publications

From Blitz to Attrition: The Evolution of the Russia–Ukraine War

24.02.2025 Four years have passed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. During this time, the conflict has gone through several phases—from the advance of mechanized columns and maneuver offensives to a prolonged positional struggle and a stage of systemic attrition. The war has taken on a character in which […]

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Publications

rewriting the constitution for narrow aims contradicts democracy

25.02.2026   By Tigran Grigoryan On February 12, at the congress of the newly established Strong Armenia party, it was announced that the political force’s candidate for prime minister would be Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan. The main issue with this decision is that, under the Constitution of Armenia, only individuals who have been solely citizens […]

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Publications

The Rule of Law or Rule by Law? Armenia’s Deepening Church Crisis

19.02.2026   By Tigran Grigoryan On February 14, a criminal case was initiated against Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II. The case centers on allegations of obstructing the enforcement of a court decision to temporarily reinstate Arman (Gevorg) Saroyan as Primate of the Massyatsotn (Masis) Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church. On January 10, Catholicos […]

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Publications

Continued pressure on Iranian protesters and anti-corruption stagnation in Armenia

  12.02.2026   By Tigran Grigoryan   Renewed Developments in the Iranian Protest Case   In a previous Democracy Watch report, we examined how protests by Iranian residents in Yerevan—and the Iranian ambassador’s criticism that Armenia was allowing “anti-Iranian forces” to mobilize—were followed by a ban on a planned march and the summoning of several […]

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Publications

Post-Displacement Challenges Facing Former Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army Servicemen

10.02.2026 The main long-term assistance program for people forcibly displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh is the housing provision program, which envisages supporting families in acquiring housing. The amount of assistance ranges between 2 and 5 million drams per family member. One of the main requirements to become a beneficiary of the program is acquiring new citizenship of […]

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Publications

American Drones for Armenia: A Tactical Deal and a Strategic Signal

  The United States has officially announced, for the first time, a major sale of military technology to Armenia. The deal concerns the delivery of V-BAT vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) reconnaissance drones worth $11 million. This was announced by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance following talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan […]

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